According to the Izvestia consensus forecast, the economy will grow by 1.5% in 2025. Previously, in September, the Ministry of Energy predicted GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025.

Analysts are lowering their forecasts due to the accelerating recovery in 2024, as well as high interest rates, which could update the record again next Friday.

The upcoming global trade wars will also play a role. However, the Russian economy will be supported by the growth of manufacturing production, including the military-industrial complex, as well as import substitution. What will happen to wages and inflation under these conditions is stated in the Izvestia article.

All 15 experts and market participants interviewed by Izvestia agree that the economy will grow in 2025. Four believe that growth will be 2% or more, while eight experts predict a range of 1-2%. Three analysts expect GDP growth to be around 1%. Therefore, the average consensus forecast is around 1.5%.

The most positive assessment was made by the investment bank Sinara, with an increase of at least 2.5%. The most negative was made by BCS World of Investments, where growth close to zero is expected. At the same time, the Ministry of Energy predicted 2.5% growth in the economy in 2025 in its September macro forecast.

Risks to the Russian economy in 2025

The head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, Vladimir Evstifeev, is sure: geopolitics remains the main factor of uncertainty - the structure of the economy and public finances will depend on the vector of its development.

What will support Russia's GDP in 2025?

“The main driver of the economy next year will continue to be domestic demand, which will continue to grow due to the increasing incomes of the population and investment activity of the state and business,” said Denis Popov, managing expert of the PSB Analytical and Expertise Center.

"Economic growth will also be provided by state support. Today, industries whose products receive state orders are growing quite dynamically - these are manufacturing, electronics, military-industrial complex, food and petrochemical industries," said academic Svetlana Frumina.

Economic growth can also be supported by import substitution, development of parallel imports and restructuring of logistics routes to provide access to new markets, especially in Asia, says Vladimir Chernov of Freedom Finance Global.

For more information about the report

https://iz.ru/1808028/olga-anaseva/bolshe-no-menshe-rost-ekonomiki-v-2025-m-zamedlitsya-do-15

FUAD SAFAROV